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Invest with the Fed: Maximizing Portfolio Performance by Following Federal Reserve Policy, by Luis Garcia-Feijoo
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About the Author
ROBERT R. JOHNSON is the president and CEO of the American College of Financial Services and a director of RS Investment Management. GERALD R. JENSEN is the Board of Trustees Professor of Finance at Northern Illinois University and an associate editor for the Journal of Financial Research. LUIS GARCIA-FEIJOO is Associate Professor of Finance at Florida Atlantic University and an associate editor of Financial Analysts Journal.
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Product details
Hardcover: 336 pages
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education; 1 edition (March 23, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0071834400
ISBN-13: 978-0071834407
Product Dimensions:
6.2 x 1.2 x 9.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 2.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.5 out of 5 stars
42 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#671,242 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
An excellent assessment of how Fed actions impact stock prices and how to take advantage of Fed interest rate trends. The book ends with a fairly easy approach to equity investing that delivers an amazing return premium of 8.8%/year.Their approach breaks the Fed interest rate changes into Expansive, Indeterminate and Restrictive situations depending on the direction of changes to the Federal Funds Rate and the Fed Discount Rate. Various investment strategies are presented for each of these situations (Value versus Growth, Real Estate, Commodities, Sector Rotation, International, and Fixed-Income among others) with some being highly successful and others not. Their work is summarized with a Rotation Strategy (each consisting of five asset classes) that provides above average results for each of the three Fed interest rate change situations.While the book is fairly helpful in how to use their learning, the one glaring omission is lack of a table showing Fed interest rate changes and the Expansive, Indeterminate, and Restrictive situations they map into. It would be helpful to the reader to see exactly how they determined these periods in order for the reader to correctly identify the Fed stance moving forward.There is much to recommend their approach given the Fed’s influence on the U.S. economy. However, to the extent the future differs from the past, the specific strategies suggested may not provide extra return. For example, part of the investment rotation approach involves investing in energy stocks. Energy prices (and oil company valuations) rose nicely for decades under OPECs dominance of oil prices. Will US fracking (and increased fracking worldwide) reverse this trend? Another part of the rotation involves investment in Emerging Markets. China’s rapid growth has contributed strongly to Emerging Markets results. Will the maturing of China’s economy lessen Emerging Markets future returns?
a good book, but perhaps not for the intended reasons...i really enjoyed this book. it is full of interesting data. i think someone wanting to learn more about investments and academic studies would learn a huge amount from this book.but i have a number of questions/concerns:1) would anyone remotely suggest the fed has been anything but expansionary the last 5 years? it's news to me that they raised the discount rate to 0.75% in 2010 and haven't lowered it since but i'm sure the author is correct......2) related to #1. could an indicator not be made from either 1 year or 2 year interest rates as summarizing fed policy? seems alot simpler although it will jump around like the effective fed funds rate too.3) similar to #1 and #2, but is effective fed funds rate going from 0.17% to 0.19% really evidence of any kind of restrictive policy? and of course it will lead to turnover although the other indicator (discount rate) is quite stable.4) the credit crisis of 2008 was extraordinary... wouldn't you have been killed in stocks following this model? of course you would have done well before and after.... note that i haven't completed my read.5) commodities may have done well historically when rates increase but as a commodity investor i am sure not hoping the fed raises rates so my commodity investments do better.... i'm think there's alot going on in oil prices that don't have anything to do with monetary policy and as i said i don't buy that restrictive monetary policy is good for oil prices..... alot of other insights relating to monetary policy to investments do make sense.this probably summarizes #1 through #5 comments but i wish the author(s) had spent more time on the monetary model and less time on the investment implications. i feel the model is too simple and not analyzed thoroughly enough. i can't reconcile thinking that fed policy has been anything but accomodative (QE and QE2) the last 5 years. interest rates have consistently surprised on the downside.great book though as survey of many different investments historically.
First, the writing style is easy to read and it flows well. Second, it is very obvious to me that Bob Johnson and his colleagues did an amazing amount of research to back up various statements and themes with facts and examples. Third, all of the suggestions and points are backed up with great logic that make a lot of sense to me. Fourth, the book should have multiple audiences. I think every portfolio manager would need it as a first read and then as a reference book on his or her shelf. They should refer to it periodically as they may be changing their own investment styles from time to time. Finally, maybe the policy makers at the FED should be made aware of the many findings as they may not be aware of the many linkages Johnson, et al have discovered. Aside from these points, as an academic myself, the book serves as a quick refresher on many classic Finance fronts. For example, it brings in the efficient market hypothesis and the various aspects of the methods for measuring risk at many key places. A minor point is, on the Kindle, the bar diagrams and summary tables seem a bit too small to really read.
The authors address a key influence in today's financial markets- the impact of the Fed and policy positions on investment portfolio performance. This book provides a well presented guide for investing in markets that are increasingly influenced by Fed activity and offer strategy recommendations based on Fed policy shifts. A must read for all serious investors.
This is one of the best books I have ever read on how to use Fed policy in making investment decisions. The authors’ grasp of the interworking of Fed policy and how and why various asset classes have reacted to Fed policy decisions was immeasurably helpful.We have entered an era where central bank policies have an unmitigated impact on asset prices and we need to advance our understanding of the role and impact of central banks on portfolios. I recommend that anyone in an investment decision making capacity read this book.
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